Goss is the Jack MacAllister chair in economics at Creighton University and principal of the Goss Institute in Denver, Colorado, among many other titles and published research papers.

Goss says he “knows a little about probabilities” as an economist, and it’s because of the laws of probability that he suggests the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are not necessarily a good thing.

“It’s not just agriculture, but especially agriculture; it’s not just in manufacturing, but especially manufacturing,” he said of tariffs that could backfire on those two main industries. “If he places a tariff on China, they can offset it with a 10 percent devaluation of their currency if they want, and all of a sudden you’re back to square one.”

Goss said the American dollar has been strong, and agriculture has suffered as a result. He also said the government’s current debt interest payments have surpassed what they are now paying for military spending.

He said of the 2018 tariffs, “The difference between then and now is there are no funds there to assist the pain that agriculture will experience this time.”

Goss said the U.S. deficit is at $2 trillion to $3 trillion, and a debt approaching $37 trillion.

“We have a wartime deficit in a peacetime economy,” said Goss, adding that there is also currently too much debt in the corporate sector.

Goss said the U.S. stock market is the “most expensive ever,” with passive investment strategies and stock buy-backs also costing more than ever.

“This market cannot keep going on — the Fed cannot keep buying bonds, enlarging their balance sheet and creating more debt for the federal government that must be paid interest on,” Goss said.

Goss said U.S. stocks are at record highs, especially compared to the size of the U.S. economy, but he said people “can’t lose” if they purchase two-year bonds because they tend to get their interest and bond back upon maturity. He said he would not recommend purchasing 10-year corporate bonds because as interest rates go up, the bond price goes down, and they tend to lose money when they are sold.

He advised to be aware that “bonds” are different from “bond funds,” since bond funds move up and down with the stock market, and it’s easier to lose money.

“The gap between the high-yield corporate bond and the 10-year treasury is how much risk investors see out there — and they don’t see risk,” said Goss.

Goss said housing affordability is at a record low, even with today’s interest rates being “pretty normal.” But he said it comes down to the law of supply and demand. He advised people to watch Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona housing markets to see if other states will follow suit.

He said home payments skyrocketed between 2020 and 2024, especially in Denver, where he said owning a home for young people is nearly impossible.

Goss said while the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is seeking and finding government “fat,” he said Americans need to pitch in and help solve the problem now, because today’s young people will still be dealing with it when they are adults.

“You don’t need to be an economist to know that when the 10-year treasury tunes up, the 30-year mortgage rate also tunes up,” he said. “That’s the best indicator to watch what’s going on with inflections, the value of the dollar and potentially with international trade.”

He said the overall outlook for agriculture is “darn good,” but “freer trade” is something we need, especially with Canada.

Goss said Mexico is the country on which to focus, with 47 percent of U.S. output currently going there. Iowa exports to Mexico are higher than that, he said.

“If Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (Mexico’s new president) gets tough on us (because of tariffs) then I’m concerned,” said Goss. He predicted grain prices in 2025 will be better than they were in 2024 and 2023, but not if (Sheinbaum Pardo) imposes retaliatory tariffs.

Goss said pork prices will continue, and beef prices “can’t do any better.”

Economic indicators Goss said to keep an eye on include (among others):

• March 7 employment report: “If it gets above 300,000 there will be a rate hike coming; if it gets below 100,000 you’ll have a rate cut coming,” said Goss.

• Federal reserve actions on the balance sheet, which he said raises or reduces the 30-year mortgage.

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting March 18-19; FOMC sets U.S. monetary policy, and Goss said the data they have is old, so he doesn’t think much will happen.

• Case-Shiller Price Index on March 25, which compiles repeat-sales house price indexes for the U.S.

• Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield and high yield corporate bonds, which is what investors use to gauge risk. That tool can be found at https://finance.yahoo.com.

• Institute for Supply and Management (ISM) survey: The ISM manufacturing index uses information from a survey of purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturing firms as the basis of a report that is considered to be a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy.

• Statements made by the FOMC.

• BRICS meeting(s) — multi-governmental summits made up of a handful of countries around the world who coordinate multilateral policies, tackling world issues.

Goss joked with the crowd when he said of the way U.S. economic trends are going: “We are the healthiest patient in the ER; the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry — or the healthiest horse in the glue factory,” he said.